Ambika Cotton Mills

• Ambika Cotton Mills Ltd manufactures and sells speciality cotton yarn. 
• It is a debt free co on net basis with cash of 218 Cr on books. It works out to be 380 Rs per share. 
• For last ten years, revenue has grown at a CAG of 6% and net profit at a rate of 2%.
• OPM is 14.2% a present as compared to ten year average of 20%.
• For last four years, co is paying DPS of 35 Rs per share. At CMP of 1447, it works out to be 2.42%.
• P/BV is 0.93 times at present. 
• P/BV varies from a low of 0.5 times to peak of 2.5 times. With this criteria, share price bottom and top is 800 and 4000 Rs per share. 
• One can say it is fairly valued at present.
• It has very good support @ 1300-1350 Rs band.
• Sustainable rally in share price can be witnessed only when there is a sustainable demand for textiles.

VST Tillers

After rounding bottom formation, VST Tillers reversed its previous trend. Its trend was up once 400-425 rs level was crossed. Later on it was facing resistance @ 500-525 band from its previous trend line. After these resistances were overcome it had only one way i.e. up. 14 Week RSI is in overbought territory and is staying there which is very bullish sign. It can be expected that it will move shortly in four digit figure. 

Disclaimer : My family owns 300 shares of it which were bought @ 425 six months back. There is a natural bias for me to expect the share price to go up.

ARIES Agro - Trend Reversal

After three and half year long downtrend, chart has turned into positive trend. The trend reversal have come on huge volume and after testing previous down trend line, share price have resumed its new found trend. It is coming on after co posted very good results. MACD which was below Zero line for last three and half years but was showing good positive divergence have turned positive and is above zero level. At present share price is facing resistance @ 60-62 Rs band. Once above this level, it will resume its trend. 

Disclaimer : My family owns 10,500 shares which were bought @ 48 three or four weeks back. It is natural bias for me that its share price will move up. I expect 80-90 Rs level soon if things work out well. 

Vimta Lab- Multi bagger

Stock is likely to make new high after consolidation for twelve weeks. It is already at multi year high and does not face major resistance before triple digit figure. RSI is in bullish territory and is not dropping below 60 even in correction which is a very bullish sign. Dropping of RSI below that trend line will be early sign of weakness but till that time party is continuing. It looks like a good buy with a target of 100-120 from 12 months perspective. 

Disclaimer : My family holds 15,000 stocks @ 30 which were bought six months back. It is likely to be held for a target of 100-120 if things works out well. 

Lloyd Electric - Break Out

Interesting chart on display for lloyd Electric and lloyd engeering. it is combination of two patterns. First pattern is Head & Shoulder pattern with neck line as indicated. Shoulders are placed @ 36.6 and 32.1 with Head @ 24.5. The breakout from neckline is on huge volume. After breakout it tested neckline and resumed its new found trend. Besides triangle pattern is also visible with support at three points already indicated. Upper target looks like to be 74.2 for the scrip. Incidentally breakout has happened on very good results.

Disclaimer : I have bought 10,500 shares @ 33-36 Rs band 4-5 weeks back. I have a bias for the scrip to go up. I will like to book profit at my target price if things work out well.

Bajaj Hindusthan - Technical Prespective

 Disclaimer : I hold 5000 shares of Bajaj Hindusthan @ 35.8

Ashok Leyland - Head n Shoulder

Apollo Hospitals - Technical Prespective

Welspun India - Technical Prespective

ADF Foods - Technical Prespective

Aarti Inds - Technical Prespective

Balrampur Chinni Mills - Technical Commentary

It looks like 56 is a good support for Balrampur Chinni. Already hit twice at this support. Once this support is broken then it can have a free fall to a level of 42-45 Rs band which may be the last fall as there is a huge positive divergence on MACD. Though MACD is still in negative territory but is inching more n more upward and pace of decline is slowing down. This Decline should be used to accumulate balrampur Chinni. I have 500 shares @ 59 Rs/share and may like to buy 1000 shares in zone of 42-45 Rs band.

Noida Toll - Technical Update

Indraprastha Medical - Technical Update

Power Grid - Technical Update

112-114 looks like resistance line while demand line is rising gradually. 101-103 looks like good support band.

Dishman Pharama - Technical Update

Looks like it has bottomed out for the time being. One more additional buy push and scrip is up n up.

SJVN Technical Update

Early sign of Weakness in SJVN. Below 22 , stock may loose strength as it will be a failure to hold 200 DMA. Probbaly movement will become dull going held with hardly any fluctuation.

Noida toll Bridge - Q1 Update

Due to no rise in toll rates, Noida toll Bridge co has come out with insipid results.Sales are stagnant as it was last year. It appears no traffic growth has taken place this year against an exepcted traffic growth of 5 %. However, decline in interest is in right direction and there is a good chance that Co will be debt free in next three years. Co is likely to come out with an EPS of 2.3-2.5 Rs/share this year. It is recommended to hold shares of this co at this price and buy on decline. I have a holding of 1000 shares with an average price of 24.07 Rs/share and plan to buy 1000 more below 25 Rs/share.

Bannari Amman Sugars- Cyclical Play

Introduction:

BASL was incorporated in 1983; it started commercial production in the year 1986 with an initial capacity of 1,250 TCD at Sathyamangalam in Erode district, Tamil Nadu. As on March 31, 2010, the company has a total capacity of 19,000 TCD. The company’s other sugar units are at Nanjangud and Kunthur in Karnataka and at Kolundampattu in Tiruvannamalai district in Tamil Nadu. The company also has distillery units, with a total capacity of 127.5 kilolitres per day, situated in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Through these distillery units, the company manufactures extra neutral alcohol (ENA), ethanol or absolute alcohol, depending on the market demand. BASL has also developed cogeneration plants at Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, having combined power generation capacity of 84 MW. The company also has wind power generation capacity of 29 MW in Poolavadi and Gudimangalam near Coimbatore.

Sugar Unit-I: The first Sugar Unit near Sathyamangalam of Erode District, Tamil Nadu State, started its commercial production in the year 1986 with an initial capacity of 1250 Tonnes of Cane Crush per day and expanded to 2500 Tonnes in 1998. The crushing capacity is now expanded to 4000 TCD. The Sugar Unit -I has an imported facility to produce 300MT Refined Sugar per day with ICUMSA less than 20 IU and the same is mainly marketed to Pharmaceutical and Food Industries in India and exported to all countries.

Sugar Unit-II: The Second Unit of Bannari Amman Sugars Limited, near Nanjangud in Mysore District of Karnataka State, started the commercial production in the year 1992 with an initial cane crushing capacity of 2500 Tonnes per day and expansion to a capacity of 5000 Tonnes in Year 2000. Another expansion to 7500 Tonnes Cane Crush per Day was completed in July 2006. A Sugar Refinery Plant with a capacity of 500 MT per day has been installed.

Sugar Unit-III: The Company has acquired a sugar mill having a cane crushing capacity of 2500 TCD in Kunthur Village near Kollegal in Karnataka by way of amalgamation of M/s. Maheswara Sugars Ltd, with the company. The Karnataka Government has approved the proposal to change the location of this sugar plant and to establish a new Sugar Plant with 6000 Tonnes Cane per Day from the existing capacity of 2500 TCD besides setting up of a 28.8 MW Co-generation Plant.

Sugar Unit-IV: It is a new Integrated Sugar Complex comprising of 5000TCD Sugar Plant, 28MW Co-generation Plant, Distillery Ethanol Plant and a Bio Composting Unit at Kolundampattu Village, Thandarampattu Taluk, Tiruvannamalai District.

Sugar Industry

I. Global Scenario

Sugar is a widely traded commodity. On an average, about 70% of world sugar production is consumed in the country of origin, and the balance 30% is traded in the international market. A part of the international sugar trade occurs under specific agreements (Preferential trade, long term agreements, etc.) that, in some cases include clauses on import prices. As mentioned, around 30% of world sugar production is traded in the world market. The Sugar prices in the international markets are of vital importance. The demand-supply position is the main factor explaining changes in international prices. It is difficult to measure consumption; therefore, it is often estimated as the disappearance of stocks. The best indicator for explaining changes in sugar prices is the stocks-to-use ratio which encompasses the growth in consumption. There is generally an inverse relation between changes in the stocks-to-use ratio and prices. During the year 2009-10, weather played havoc with crops across the globe which resulted in significantly lower output in number of countries with Brazil, China, Thailand and Mexico being the most notable ones. The world production was 153.5 million tonnes as against 143.5 million tonnes last year showing 7% growth year on year. The consumption was at 155.1 million tonnes, thereby reducing the global stocks by 1.6 million tonnes and shown growth of 1.3% in consumption and export. Stock availability as a percentage of consumption (stocks to- use ratio) is down by 1% at 13% from 14% of last year which is at lowest level in last 20 years. For the season 2010-11, surge in domestic prices led to more plantations in large-scale producers such as Brazil, India, China, Australia, Thailand, Pakistan and Indonesia, with estimates of 165.0 million tonnes of sugar production the market can be expected to swing back into surplus in 2010-11. Being global demand is expected to rise in 2010-11; the surplus will not be burdensome and at the same time is even welcome as stocks need to be replenished to be at reasonable level.

II. Indian Scenario

India is one of the largest producer and consumer of sugar in the world. The Indian sugar industry has a turnover of around Rs. 70,000 Crore and is the second largest agro-based industry, next to textile industry. Indian sugar industry is highly fragmented with mills of average capacity of 3,600 TCD, where in internationally the minimum economic size is around 7,500 TCD. Out of various models of business in this industry, Sugar - Molasses - Power and Sugar - Ethanol - Power are more prevalent. The sugar production in Sugar Season 2009-10 outstripped the expectation owing to higher than anticipated production in UP and Maharashtra. Towards end of the year 2008-09, there was about 1.4 months stock available in pipeline but during 2009-10, once the prices started falling and also stock limits controlled by Government, the trade resorted to hand to mouth buying leaving hardly any stock in pipeline. The actual release was of 20.8 million tonnes but the consumption was around 22.5 million tonnes. India imported roughly more than 4 million tonnes in Sugar Season 2009-10 to meet the demand. In year 2009-10, cane acreage reduced by 2.1 lac hectares due to increase in minimum support prices (MSP) of alternative crops especially wheat and rice. As a result, India witnessed lowest sugarcane produce of last five years at 278 million tonnes. However, better yield at 66 tonnes per hectare was a support to some extent.

Million tones 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Production     14.00      12.69     19.27      28.3        26.3       14.5      18.8

Consumption 17.29       18.50     18.50     20.0        22.2        22.5      23.5

If one look at stocks to use ratio in case of Indian scenario, it has reduced from 63.3 % in 2002 to 13.5 % as on date. It simply means that earlier the inventory in pipeline was for almost seven months which have been reduced to one and half months now. It effectively means any crop failure will result in sharp upswing of sugar prices as sugar availability will be very low and this situation is all over the world. If some urgent measures are not taken then there is a good chance that sugar prices will be shooting up to roof as consumption is rising but production is stagnating. Besides, acreage for sugarcane in India this year will be almost at highest level. I am of the opinion that next year onwards we will start seeing hardening of sugar prices and sugar prices will be in a major long term bullish territory and opening up of sugar sector and industry is imminent.

Financials:

Co sales have increased from a meagre 14 Cr in 1985 to 853 Cr in 2010 and profits in the same period have increased from 55 lakh to 199.73 Cr while equity have just increased from 3.73 Cr to 11.44 Cr including one bonus of 1:1 also. It looks like a consistent growing sugar co which is rare to find in this industry. Co Current year EPS is around 55 Rs/share and current price looks reasonable from that angle. Dividend of 10 Rs/share means a yield of 2 % at present level.

Technical Analysis:

Share price of Co moved from a low of 95 in 2003 to 1700 + by 2006. Since then co share price is in correction mode with high price range of 1200-1500 and low price range of 400-550 Rs zone. Considering the long tern prospect of Sugar industry, it looks like this range will be broken on upside sooner than later. This short to medium term weakness in sugar looks like a good opportunity to me for investment.

 Investment Theme:

I am very bullish on sugar as a commodity on very long term basis. On international levels, the chart of sugar is looking extremely bullish though in short to medium term it looks weak and can test level of 15 even though at present it is trading at 24-25. Rather, I will say I am more bullish on agricultural commodities as the consumption of these will increase with Asia leading the growth and there will not be any decline in consumption in western world in agricultural commodities as it is essential. I am going to invest in 7-8 sugar cos to diversify base. Bannari Amman sugar is one of them as I have invested 20000 Rs in this stock @ 560 Rs/share with an option of investing 30000 more at price range of 450-500 Rs/share.

Indraprastha Medical -- Be Patient

Introduction:

Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals, India’s first JCI accredited hospital, is a joint venture between the Government of Delhi and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited. Commissioned in July 1996, it is the third super-specialty tertiary care hospital set up by the Apollo Hospitals Group. Spread over 15 acres, it houses 57 specialties with more than 300 specialists and more than 600 operational beds, 19 operation theatres, 138 ICU beds, round-the-clock pharmacy, NABL accredited laboratories, 24-hour emergency services and an active air ambulance service. Apollo Hospitals Delhi has the leading programme in kidney and liver transplant in the country. The first successful pediatrics and adult liver transplants in India were performed at Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals. The hospital is at the forefront of medical technology and expertise. It provides a complete range of latest diagnostic, medical and surgical facilities for the care of its patients. The Hospital has introduced the most sophisticated imaging technology to India with the introduction of 64 slice CT and 3 Tesla MRI. Indraprastha Apollo has also pioneered the concept of preventive health check programmes and has created a satisfied customer base over decades.

In the year 1986, The Govt. of NCT of Delhi under the direction of the then Prime Minister, had decided to set up a multi specialty hospital. Indraprastha Medical Corporation Limited (IMCL) was promoted in the joint sector by the Govt. of NCT of Delhi and Apollo Hospitals Group and was incorporated as Public Limited company on 16th March, 1988 to set up a multi super specialty hospital in Delhi namely “Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals”. The incomplete building was handed over to the Company at a nominal lease rental of Rs. 1/- per month. A Management Agreement was also entered on the same date between Indian Hospital Corporation Ltd. (an Apollo Hospitals Group Company) and Indraprastha Medical Corporation Ltd. for providing technical and management services to the Company at a nominal management fee of Rs. 1/- per annum. This was the first joint venture Company and a first of its kind in Healthcare under the public-private partnership model. Later on, 15 acres of land at Delhi Mathura Road, Sarita Vihar, New Delhi, together with building constructed out of the money (including interest) received from Sport Authority of India was leased to the company for a period of thirty years up to July 31, 2023 renewable for a further period of thirty years on the same terms and conditions as agreed before. The Hospital was inaugurated in July 1996 and commenced various services in a phased manner.

As per the terms of the lease deed, the Company shall admit free of charge such patients as may be recommended by the Lt. Governor of the National Capital Territory of Delhi up to 1/3rd (one third) of the bed strength consisting of 600 beds or such number of beds as near thereto as may be commissioned for the time being, earmarked for such purpose by the Company. The Company shall provide free diet, medical diagnostic and such other facilities to the patients aforesaid as are required by the patients for indoor treatment. The Company shall also provide free medical, diagnostic and other facilities for not less than 40% of it’s out-door patients. There was also an implied obligation on account of custom duty exemption for import of medical equipment prevailing at the time when the Hospital project was conceived. However, the hospital could not avail the benefits due to relocation of the project and consequent time delay during which period the custom duty exemption on import of medical equipment was withdrawn. A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) was filed in the year 1997 in the High Court of Delhi for seeking direction that the Company should also provide free medicines and medical consumables to the Patients referred by the Govt. of NCT of Delhi for free treatment in the Hospital. The Petition was contested by the Company. An interim order dated 29.5.1998 was issued by the Hon’ble High Court of Delhi and accordingly the Hospital has been providing free treatment exclusive of medicines & medical consumables to patients referred by the Govt. of NCT of Delhi. The Delhi High Court decided the PIL vide its order dated 22nd September, 2009, and has held that free treatment provided by the Hospital as per the terms of the lease deed shall be inclusive of medicines and consumables. The Company has filed a Special Leave Petition (SLP) before the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India against the impugned judgment and order of the Hon’ble High Court of Delhi. The Hon’ble Supreme Court of India has admitted the SLP and passed an interim order on 30.11.2009. In pursuance of the interim order, the Hospital is providing free treatment to the patients referred by the Govt. of NCT of Delhi exclusive of medicines & medical consumables. The matter is pending before the Supreme Court of India.

Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals is distinguished by its focus on Clinical Excellence. It has participated in one of the most important programs of the Apollo Hospitals Group known as ACE@25 - a unique clinical balanced scorecard focusing on evidence based quality care and a safe environment for patients. The scorecard measures 25 clinical parameters every month, benchmarking them against the best institutions in the world and scores them on a 4 point scale, colour coded as green, orange or red. Each of the   participating hospitals is thus measured on a 100 point score and reported online for monitoring and sharing of best practices. A score of 75 and above is considered good performance and in the green zone. The average ACE @ 25 scores for the Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals this year has been 76.66. With sustained efforts, the Average Length of Stay (ALOS) of patients in the Hospital was brought down from 5.09 days to 4.8 days. A number of other initiatives were also undertaken in critical areas of hospital operations directly impacting patient care. The average turn around per dialysis chair per day has also got increased. Being the first hospital in the country to get Joint Commission International (JCI) accreditation, Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals has always strived to ensure all quality norms are being met. This year Indraprastha Apollo Hospitals continued to build on the strategy of focusing on the Apollo Centers of Excellence, with Orthopedics being identified as a key area. Anticipating joint replacement surgeries (particularly knee replacements) as a high growth area, the Hospital did a number of activities to increase the numbers of knee replacement surgeries. The Apollo Knee Clinics was set up in November 2009, followed by a focused marketing campaign through hoardings, posters and hand outs. Following these initiatives, significant growth in the number of surgeries was recorded significant renovation and up gradation work was completed during the year, which should add to patient comfort and help achieve more operational efficiencies. Among others, a new orthopedics operation theatre, a 5-bed ICU for critical cardiac care patients, a 12 bed Multi Organ Transplant Unit for Renal Transplant patients, a Mezzanine in the atrium for ICU patient attendants and international patient lounge were commissioned. Fifty eight patient rooms and three OPDs were also renovated during the year.

Financials:

Hospital Sales have increased from 204 Cr in 2006 to 458 Cr in 2011. Profit in this period increased from 16.66 Cr to 30.73 Cr this year resulting in an EPS of 3.35 Rs as compared to an EPS of 1.64 Rs/share. Dividend in the same period increased from 1.25 Rs/share to 1.6 Rs/share this year. On Margins front and on other parameters this hospital compares well with other hospitals. It is likely that this hospital will continue to grow at a rate of 10-15 % for years to come. No major expansion being in a Joint Venture can be expected to come out of it.

Technical Analysis:

For last six years the scrip is not able to go beyond 50-60 Rs band and on downside it have very good support in band of 20-27. The scrip ideally can be bought in the region of 25-27 Rs/share. In case of severe correction the scrip is unlikely to go below this level this time. 26.4 will be 76.4 % correction of 18.05 to 53.5 Rs rise. This may be the target of share on downside. No signs of turnaround on Weekly MACD n Weekly RSI has been observed on the chart.

Investment Theme:

The Investment Theme in this stock is dividend yield and defensive nature of stock. It is ideal stock in place of FD as it is likely to give 12-15 % return p.a. in general including dividend over long period of time. If price of acquisition is in ur favour then return can be more. I have 1000 shares in this hospital at present  and plan to invest 35000-40000 Rs more in case of decline in share price to 25-27 Rs band. In case it goes up to 50-60 , I will quit from this scrip .